What's Logs Got to Do With It?

Twitter (or what’s left of it) was recently ablaze with a discussion of two smart working papers, one by Jiafeng Chen and Jonathan Roth and the other by John Mullahy and Edward Norton.

Simulating Turnout in Tunisia's Constitutional Referendum

I am writing this post in response to questions about estimating turnout for Tunisia’s constitutional referendum today. Turnout is an important aspect to this referendum because high turnout would signal higher legitimacy for President Kais Saied’s dramatic changes to the Tunisia’s democracy.