Simulating Turnout in Tunisia's Constitutional Referendum

I am writing this post in response to questions about estimating turnout for Tunisia’s constitutional referendum today. Turnout is an important aspect to this referendum because high turnout would signal higher legitimacy for President Kais Saied’s dramatic changes to the Tunisia’s democracy.

What To Do (And Not to Do) with Modeling Proportions/Fractional Outcomes

Introduction Limited dependent variables, or continuous variables with lower and upper bounds, are quite common in the social sciences but do not fit easily with existing statistical models. In this Rmarkdown document, I show why these issues are important to consider when modeling your data, discuss existing R packages useful for fitting these models, and also present ordbetareg, an R package with a new variant of Beta regression that builds on and simplifies existing approaches (see paper here that is forthcoming in Political Analysis).

Energy Nationalism To the Rescue

The Russian invasion of the Ukraine has raised a new specter of energy nationalism. Although only the United Kingdom and the United States have gone as far as outright banning Russian oil and gas, other European economies, including Germany, are seriously discussing weaning off of their main energy supplier.

The Causal Representation of Panel Data: A Comment On Xu (2022)

NB: An earlier version of this post critiqued Victor Chernozhukov’s approach to directed a-cyclic graphs and fixed effects, but made some critical errors in interpreting his approach. These errors were entirely mine, and I apologize to Victor for doing so.

Alt-APSA 2021 Online Panel List

To submit your panel Zoom session, please use this form (submissions are moderated):

Which Religious Groups Have the Most Sex?

There has been plenty of discussion about declining fertility rates and patterns of marriage among people in the United States following the news that the US birth rate declined to its lowest since the Great Depression.

An Overview of Data for COVID Analysis

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a wealth of research studies examining various aspects of the pandemic. In this post, I will discuss some of the available datasets for doing aggregate level analysis, i.

How to Estimate Models with Measurement Error for our COVID-19 Indices

This tutorial gives an overview of the COVID-19 policy indexes just released by the CoronaNet project of which I am a part and the Oxford Government Response Tracker.

The Good, the Bad and the Ugly in the CDC's Face Mask Study

While perusing the news, I read eagerly about the CDC’s recent study examining associations between county-level mask mandates and COVID-19 growth rates. This study has already been the subject of angry retorts from the restaurant industry due to the CDC’s claim that restaurant closures reduced COVID-19 spread.

Why People Are Doubting the AstraZeneca Vaccine Report

In this blog post, I use Gelman and Loken’s garden of forking paths analysis to construct a simulation showing why skepticism of AstraZeneca’s vaccine results is warranted at this early stage.