Robert Kubinec

Robert Kubinec

Assistant Professor of Political Science

New York University Abu Dhabi


This website serves mainly as a blog in which I present ideas on political-economic topics I study and issues related to data science with R/Rstudio and causal inference. My R-related posts are syndicated with RBloggers, a consortium of R bloggers.

My research centers on political-economic issues such as corruption, economic development, and business-state relations in developing countries, and in particular the Middle East and North Africa. I am also involved in the development of Bayesian statistical models with Stan for hard-to-study subjects like corruption, polarization, and other latent social constructs. To see a list of my current working papers and access the PDFs, see my Google Scholar page.

Scroll down to see my recent blog posts.

Recent Posts

Simulating Turnout in Tunisia's Constitutional Referendum

I am writing this post in response to questions about estimating turnout for Tunisia’s constitutional referendum today. Turnout is an important aspect to this referendum because high turnout would signal higher legitimacy for President Kais Saied’s dramatic changes to the Tunisia’s democracy.

What To Do (And Not to Do) with Modeling Proportions/Fractional Outcomes

Introduction Limited dependent variables, or continuous variables with lower and upper bounds, are quite common in the social sciences but do not fit easily with existing statistical models. In this Rmarkdown document, I show why these issues are important to consider when modeling your data, discuss existing R packages useful for fitting these models, and also present ordbetareg, an R package with a new variant of Beta regression that builds on and simplifies existing approaches (see paper here that is forthcoming in Political Analysis).

Energy Nationalism To the Rescue

The Russian invasion of the Ukraine has raised a new specter of energy nationalism. Although only the United Kingdom and the United States have gone as far as outright banning Russian oil and gas, other European economies, including Germany, are seriously discussing weaning off of their main energy supplier.

The Causal Representation of Panel Data: A Comment On Xu (2022)

NB: An earlier version of this post critiqued Victor Chernozhukov’s approach to directed a-cyclic graphs and fixed effects, but made some critical errors in interpreting his approach. These errors were entirely mine, and I apologize to Victor for doing so.

Alt-APSA 2021 Online Panel List

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